06/06/2008

Ireland Will Say 'No' To Treaty, Predicts Poll

While polls are notoriously inaccurate as guides to the eventual outcome of plebiscites - it seems certain this weekend that it will take an unprecedented swing in voters' opinions to carry a 'Yes' vote for the EU Treaty.

Things are so bad that Taoiseach Brian Cowen has personally spoken out and said a positive vote in the Lisbon Treaty referendum next week is "fundamentally in our interests" after the poll just published showed it faces outright rejection.

Mr Cowen accused those opposed to the treaty of "spreading confusion" and bringing in "extraneous issues" that were nothing to do with the treaty which is subject to a referendum on June 12.

The Irish Times poll shows the number of people intending to vote 'No' has almost doubled to 35% (up 17 points) since the last poll three weeks ago, while the number of the 'Yes' side has declined to 30% (down 5 points).

However, the number of undecided voters is still a significant 28% (down 12 points), while 7% insist they won't vote.

While the final outcome is still in the hands of undecided voters, the clear momentum is now with the 'No' campaign, and it will take a dramatic shift for the 'Yes' side to win.

The reason most often cited is that 'No' voters don’t know what they are voting for or they don't understand the Treaty, with 30% of listing this as the main reason for their decision.

(BMcC)

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