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24/02/2012
Irish Economy Returned To Modest Growth In 2011
There is still uncertainty regarding the outlook for the euro zone, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
ESRI's forecasts for Ireland are based on a European outlook where the euro zone will continue to "muddle-through" the crisis, with current levels of uncertainty about debt sustainability persisting during the first half of 2012. A key factor will be the reaction of the private sector to this policy uncertainty.
ESRI estimates that the Irish economy returned to modest growth in 2011, with real GDP increasing by about 0.9 per cent. However, employment has continued to fall and as a consequence the unemployment rate averaged 14.2 per cent.
ESRI expects a similar rate of growth in 2012 (0.9 per cent in real GDP). The unemployment rate will more or less stabilise, at 14.0 per cent, both because of migration and because of a reduced participation rate.
The Commentary presents our first forecast for 2013. As a consequence of the weak international and domestic environment, GDP and GNP are forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent and 1.0 per cent respectively in 2013. Unemployment will remain high at 13.7 per cent.
While the austerity measures currently being undertaken correct the public finances they have a dampening effect on economic activity. There are very few policy options open to the government to stimulate growth. Structural reforms could be the mechanism to improve the productive capacity of the economy along with reforms of the tax system and infrastructural improvements.
(CD)
ESRI's forecasts for Ireland are based on a European outlook where the euro zone will continue to "muddle-through" the crisis, with current levels of uncertainty about debt sustainability persisting during the first half of 2012. A key factor will be the reaction of the private sector to this policy uncertainty.
ESRI estimates that the Irish economy returned to modest growth in 2011, with real GDP increasing by about 0.9 per cent. However, employment has continued to fall and as a consequence the unemployment rate averaged 14.2 per cent.
ESRI expects a similar rate of growth in 2012 (0.9 per cent in real GDP). The unemployment rate will more or less stabilise, at 14.0 per cent, both because of migration and because of a reduced participation rate.
The Commentary presents our first forecast for 2013. As a consequence of the weak international and domestic environment, GDP and GNP are forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent and 1.0 per cent respectively in 2013. Unemployment will remain high at 13.7 per cent.
While the austerity measures currently being undertaken correct the public finances they have a dampening effect on economic activity. There are very few policy options open to the government to stimulate growth. Structural reforms could be the mechanism to improve the productive capacity of the economy along with reforms of the tax system and infrastructural improvements.
(CD)
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Ireland WeatherToday:There will be a mixture of bright intervals and a few showers. Best of the sunny spells will be near the North Coast. Feeling on the cool side. Maximum temperature 10 °C.Tonight:Showers will gradually die out during the evening. A cold night with long clear spells leading to a touch of frost in places. Minimum temperature 0 °C.
